Spire winter 2026-27 weather outlook

A very strong El Niño is building, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) now gives it better than 90% odds of carrying through the winter, with a 75% chance that October through December is the strongest event on record since 1950. Explore how this will help shape heating demand and the supply-and-demand balance for winter heating fuels.

El Niño does not hit every region the same way. Its North American fingerprints are well known and still inconsistent: no two strong events have played out alike, and cold snaps happen inside mild winters. In Europe, the link is much weaker, and storage, wind, hydro, cloud cover over solar, and liquefied natural gas (LNG) availability usually matter more to TTF and power. In both, the seasonal average hides the week-to-week swings that move a book.

Join Spire’s meteorologists for the 2026–27 winter outlook. We’ll break down the El Niño prediction: what history tells us and what it doesn’t; what our forecast shows, region by region, from November through February and beyond; and where the sub-seasonal signal flags swings within the seasonal picture. You’ll see it live in Cirrus, plus a hindcast view of what our signals showed for previous seasons and how those could have influenced positions.

This is our forecasters’ honest view of the season. Two sessions, two genuinely different outlooks. Attend one or both.

Register for the session that works best for you

Can’t make it live? Register anyway and we’ll send you the recording.

Who should attend

If your P&L, margin or supply commitment moves with winter temperatures, this session is for you. Specifically:

• Natural gas and LNG traders at hubs, utilities and merchant desks: how cold, how likely, for how long, and is the market already pricing it?
• Hedge fund and proprietary trading desk weather and energy analysts: where is consensus wrong about this El Niño winter?
• European gas and power traders across TTF, NBP and power forwards: if El Niño says little about Europe, what should you watch instead?
• LNG traders and cargo optimizers: does winter demand pull cargoes to Europe or to Asia?
• Utility and energy portfolio managers and load forecasters: how much heating demand do you plan around, and when will it peak?
• In-house trading meteorologists deciding which forecasts the desk sees
• Chief risk officers and heads of trading: how much weather risk sits in the winter book, and when do you hedge?
• Natural gas, propane and heating oil suppliers: fill storage now, or wait?

What we’ll cover

Every attendee leaves with:

• What this El Niño is, how strong it is likely to get, and what history tells us and what it does not
• A regional winter outlook for North America or Europe, month by month through February and beyond
• Where week-to-week swings are most likely inside the seasonal average
• How energy and commodity desks are already using this outlook: which signals they watch and over what horizon
• Proof from the record: what Spire’s signals showed for previous seasons and the operational impact
• Live Q&A with the forecasters

Our speakers